Baseball Prospectus
Major League Baseball Handicapping
Major League Baseball handicapping is a difficult task, but with some guidance, you can become a good Mlb handicapper. The first thing to realize is that all statistics are not created equal. Over the course of the season, a player’s batting average cannot be weighted the same as another player’s. For example, a player who faces someone like San Francisco Giants ace Tim Lincecum more often than the average pitcher will likely have a worse batting average. So while these averages might look like they all are the same, a player in the NL West who faces the Giants more often than another team will most likely have a lower average because he sees a higher quality of pitcher. RBIs are also an outdated stat, as this number is biased towards middle of the lineup hitters. A mediocre hitter in the middle of a lineup will have more RBIs than a good leadoff hitter in many instances.
So if traditional stats are not telling enough to weight which team will perform at a higher level, how does a successful MLB handicapper choose their winning selections? The statistics that have evolved over the last few years are definitely much more worthwhile to a handicapper than the stats used by teams since the inception of the game. Sabermetrics, the term that has been coined to describe these revolutionary stats, is a recent addition to sports handicapping. Baseball Prospectus has been at the forefront of this newly minted science and has created more telling stats like equivalent average and value over replacement player. Other stats have been around for a bit longer, such as on base percentage, slugging average, and on base percentage plus slugging average (OPS). These statistics are used to give us a better comparison of how one player would perform as compared to another given the same circumstances.
These stats are of little use if you do not know how to calculate them. Unfortunately, there are not many outlets for this type of information as the vast majority of people who calculate this information use it for their own private study in order to gain an advantage over other sports bettors. Many professional MLB handicappers are not too keen on sharing information that will tilt the scales against them in their pursuit to beat the sports books.
A spreadsheet program that tracks players’ stats can be easily designed, but this is not your only option. There are still some professional MLB handicappers willing to sell their services to you for a nominal fee. If you are interested in betting on Major League Baseball but do not have the time or energy to pursue such an endeavor, hiring a pro can be a good choice. Always be sure to scout out a number of different MLB handicappers in order to find the one that best suits your needs.
About the Author
A Baseball Prospectus
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